TransCity

The CBS, the Central Statistics Agency in the Netherlands, estimates the Dutch population will number 16.8 million in 2050, compared to 16.4 million today. Migrant communities are fully responsible for this growth. Today, some 19% of the Dutch population is from a migrant community. In 2050, this is expected to be 29% of the population, almost one third of the total population.

The word the CBS is using for migrants is ‘allochtonen’. This word is used for those who are born in a foreign country with at least one parent who is also born in that foreign country - or the children of these people born in the Netherlands. In other words, those having ethnic minority backgrounds but with parents born in the Netherlands (third generation) are not part of these 29%.

The CBS still makes a distinction between ‘westerse allochtonen’ (from a western industrialized country such as EU member states, United States, Australia and Japan) and ‘niet-westerse allochtonen’ (from a non-western industrialized country, such as many African, Asian and Latin-American countries). The word ‘autochtonen’ is used for the indigenous Dutch population, but includes third generation migrants.

Although the largest migrant communities in the Netherlands are from the former Dutch East Indies (Indonesia), Germany, Turkey, Morocco, Suriname and the Netherlands Antilles, the fastest growing communities in the years ahead are expected to be Chinese, Iraqi, Afghan and Iranian communities, most of the growth coming from the second generation. First generation migrants from western-industrialized countries are also expected to grow, most of them coming from other Europeans union countries.